Drivers of Dengue Within-Host Dynamics and Virulence Evolution

Dengue is an important vector-borne virus that infects on the order of 400 million individuals per year. Infection with one of the virus's four serotypes (denoted DENV-1 to 4) may be silent, result in symptomatic dengue 'breakbone' fever, or develop into the more severe dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). Extensive research has therefore focused on identifying factors that influence dengue infection outcomes. It has been well-documented through epidemiological studies that DHF is most likely to result from a secondary heterologous infection, and that individuals experiencing a DENV-2 or DENV-3 infection typically are more likely to present with more severe dengue disease than those individuals experiencing a DENV-1 or DENV-4 infection. However, a mechanistic understanding of how these risk factors affect disease outcomes, and further, how the virus's ability to evolve these mechanisms will affect disease severity patterns over time, is lacking. In the second chapter of my dissertation, I formulate mechanistic mathematical models of primary and secondary dengue infections that describe how the dengue virus interacts with the immune response and the results of this interaction on the risk of developing severe dengue disease. I show that only the innate immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a primary infection whereas the adaptive immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a secondary dengue infection. I then add to these models a quantitative measure of disease severity that assumes immunopathology, and analyze the effectiveness of virological indicators of disease severity. In the third chapter of my dissertation, I then statistically fit these mathematical models to viral load data of dengue patients to understand the mechanisms that drive variation in viral load. I specifically consider the roles that immune status, clinical disease manifestation, and serotype may play in explaining viral load variation observed across the patients. With this analysis, I show that there is statistical support for the theory of antibody dependent enhancement in the development of severe disease in secondary dengue infections and that there is statistical support for serotype-specific differences in viral infectivity rates, with infectivity rates of DENV-2 and DENV-3 exceeding those of DENV-1. In the fourth chapter of my dissertation, I integrate these within-host models with a vector-borne epidemiological model to understand the potential for virulence evolution in dengue. Critically, I show that dengue is expected to evolve towards intermediate virulence, and that the optimal virulence of the virus depends strongly on the number of serotypes that co-circulate. Together, these dissertation chapters show that dengue viral load dynamics provide insight into the within-host mechanisms driving differences in dengue disease patterns and that these mechanisms have important implications for dengue virulence evolution.

Safety and efficacy of rivastigmine in adolescents with Down syndrome: long-term follow-up.

Following the completion of a 20-week, open-label study of the safety and efficacy of liquid rivastigmine for adolescents with Down syndrome, 5 of the 10 adolescents in the clinical trial continued long-term rivastigmine therapy and 5 did not. After an average period of 38 months, all 10 subjects returned for a follow-up assessment to determine the safety and efficacy of long-term rivastigmine use. Rivastigmine was well tolerated and overall health appeared to be unaffected by long-term rivastigmine use. Performance change on cognitive and language measures administered at the termination of the open-label clinical trial was compared between the two groups. No between-group difference in median performance change across the long-term period was found, suggesting that the long-term use of rivastigmine does not improve cognitive and language performance. However, two subjects demonstrated remarkable improvement in adaptive function over the long-term period. Both subjects had received long-term rivastigmine therapy. The discussion addresses the challenge of assessing cognitive change in clinical trials using adolescents with Down syndrome as subjects and the use of group versus individual data to evaluate the relevance of medication effects.

Genetic variants in the TEP1 gene are associated with prostate cancer risk and recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Telomere-related genes play an important role in carcinogenesis and progression of prostate cancer (PCa). It is not fully understood whether genetic variations in telomere-related genes are associated with development and progression in PCa patients. METHODS: Six potentially functional single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of three key telomere-related genes were evaluated in 1015 PCa cases and 1052 cancer-free controls, to test their associations with risk of PCa. Among 426 PCa patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP), the prognostic significance of the studied SNPs on biochemical recurrence (BCR) was also assessed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The relative telomere lengths (RTLs) were measured in peripheral blood leukocytes using real-time PCR in the RP patients. RESULTS: TEP1 rs1760904 AG/AA genotypes were significantly associated with a decreased risk of PCa (odds ratio (OR): 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64-0.93, P=0.005) compared with the GG genotype. By using median RTL as a cutoff level, RP patients with TEP1 rs1760904 AG/AA genotypes tended to have a longer RTL than those with the GG genotype (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.04-2.30, P=0.031). A significant interaction between TEP1 rs1713418 and age in modifying PCa risk was observed (P=0.005). After adjustment for clinicopathologic risk factors, the presence of heterozygotes or rare homozygotes of TEP1 rs1760904 and TNKS2 rs1539042 were associated with BCR in the RP cohorts (hazard ratio: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.36-0.79, P=0.002 and hazard ratio: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.07-2.48, P=0.017, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that genetic variations in the TEP1 gene may be biomarkers for risk of PCa and BCR after RP.

HPV16 antibodies as risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer and their association with tumor HPV and smoking status.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies (Abs) to the HPV16 proteome increase risk for HPV-associated OPC (HPVOPC). The goal of this study was to investigate the association of a panel of HPV16 Abs with risk for OPC as well as the association of these Abs with tumor HPV and smoking status among patients with OPC. METHODS: IgG Abs to the HPV16 antigens E1, E2, E4, E5, E6, E7, L1, L2 were quantified using a programmable ELISA assay. Sera were obtained from 258 OPC patients at diagnosis and 250 healthy controls. HPV16 tumor status was measured by PCR for 137 cases. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios for the association of HPV16 Abs with risk for OPC. RESULTS: HPV16 E1, E2, E4, E5, E6, E7 and L1-specific IgG levels were elevated in OPC patients compared to healthy controls (p<0.05). After multivariable adjustment, Ab positivity for NE2, CE2, E6, and/or E7 was associated with OPC risk (OR [95% CI], 249.1 [99.3-624.9]). Among patients with OPC, Ab positivity for these antigens was associated with tumor HPV status, especially among never or light smokers (OR [95% CI], 6.5 [2.1-20.1] and OR [95% CI], 17.5 [4.0-77.2], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Antibodies to HPV16 proteins are associated with increased risk for HPVOPC. Among patients with OPC, HPV16 Abs are associated with tumor HPV status, in particular among HPV positive patients with no or little smoking history.

Apparent treatment-resistant hypertension and chronic kidney disease: another cardiovascular-renal syndrome?

To identify patients at increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes, apparent treatment-resistant hypertension (aTRH) is defined as having a blood pressure above goal despite the use of 3 or more antihypertensive therapies of different classes at maximally tolerated doses, ideally including a diuretic. Recent epidemiologic studies in selected populations estimated the prevalence of aTRH as 10% to 15% among patients with hypertension and that aTRH is associated with elevated risk of CV and renal outcomes. Additionally, aTRH and CKD are associated. Although the pathogenesis of aTRH is multifactorial, the kidney is believed to play a significant role. Increased volume expansion, aldosterone concentration, mineralocorticoid receptor activity, arterial stiffness, and sympathetic nervous system activity are central to the pathogenesis of aTRH and are targets of therapies. Although diuretics form the basis of therapy in aTRH, pathophysiologic and clinical data suggest an important role for aldosterone antagonism. Interventional techniques, such as renal denervation and carotid baroreceptor activation, modulate the sympathetic nervous system and are currently in phase III trials for the treatment of aTRH. These technologies are as yet unproven and have not been investigated in relationship to CV outcomes or in patients with CKD.

Risk factors for and estimated incidence of community-associated Clostridium difficile infection, North Carolina, USA.

We determined estimated incidence of and risk factors for community-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CA-CDI) among patients treated at 6 North Carolina hospitals. CA-CDI case-patients were defined as adults (>18 years of age) with a positive stool test result for C. difficile toxin and no hospitalization within the prior 8 weeks. CA-CDI incidence was 21 and 46 per 100,000 person-years in Veterans Affairs (VA) outpatients and Durham County populations, respectively. VA case-patients were more likely than controls to have received antimicrobial drugs (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 17.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.6-48] and to have had a recent outpatient visit (aOR 5.1, 95% CI 1.5-17.9). County case-patients were more likely than controls to have received antimicrobial drugs (aOR 9.1, 95% CI 2.9-28.9), to have gastroesophageal reflux disease (aOR 11.2, 95% CI 1.9-64.2), and to have cardiac failure (aOR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-13.7). Risk factors for CA-CDI overlap with those for healthcare-associated infection.

Comparative effectiveness studies to improve clinical outcomes in end stage renal disease: the DEcIDE patient outcomes in end stage renal disease study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is lacking to inform providers' and patients' decisions about many common treatment strategies for patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS/DESIGN: The DEcIDE Patient Outcomes in ESRD Study is funded by the United States (US) Agency for Health Care Research and Quality to study the comparative effectiveness of: 1) antihypertensive therapies, 2) early versus later initiation of dialysis, and 3) intravenous iron therapies on clinical outcomes in patients with ESRD. Ongoing studies utilize four existing, nationally representative cohorts of patients with ESRD, including (1) the Choices for Healthy Outcomes in Caring for ESRD study (1041 incident dialysis patients recruited from October 1995 to June 1999 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2009), (2) the Dialysis Clinic Inc (45,124 incident dialysis patients initiating and receiving their care from 2003-2010 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2010), (3) the United States Renal Data System (333,308 incident dialysis patients from 2006-2009 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2010), and (4) the Cleveland Clinic Foundation Chronic Kidney Disease Registry (53,399 patients with chronic kidney disease with outcome ascertainment from 2005 through 2009). We ascertain patient reported outcomes (i.e., health-related quality of life), morbidity, and mortality using clinical and administrative data, and data obtained from national death indices. We use advanced statistical methods (e.g., propensity scoring and marginal structural modeling) to account for potential biases of our study designs. All data are de-identified for analyses. The conduct of studies and dissemination of findings are guided by input from Stakeholders in the ESRD community. DISCUSSION: The DEcIDE Patient Outcomes in ESRD Study will provide needed evidence regarding the effectiveness of common treatments employed for dialysis patients. Carefully planned dissemination strategies to the ESRD community will enhance studies' impact on clinical care and patients' outcomes.

Novel associations of UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 2B gene variants with prostate cancer risk in a multiethnic study.

BACKGROUND: We have previously shown that a functional polymorphism of the UGT2B15 gene (rs1902023) was associated with increased risk of prostate cancer (PC). Novel functional polymorphisms of the UGT2B17 and UGT2B15 genes have been recently characterized by in vitro assays but have not been evaluated in epidemiologic studies. METHODS: Fifteen functional SNPs of the UGT2B17 and UGT2B15 genes, including cis-acting UGT2B gene SNPs, were genotyped in African American and Caucasian men (233 PC cases and 342 controls). Regression models were used to analyze the association between SNPs and PC risk. RESULTS: After adjusting for race, age and BMI, we found that six UGT2B15 SNPs (rs4148269, rs3100, rs9994887, rs13112099, rs7686914 and rs7696472) were associated with an increased risk of PC in log-additive models (p < 0.05). A SNP cis-acting on UGT2B17 and UGT2B15 expression (rs17147338) was also associated with increased risk of prostate cancer (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.00-2.70); while a stronger association among men with high Gleason sum was observed for SNPs rs4148269 and rs3100. CONCLUSIONS: Although small sample size limits inference, we report novel associations between UGT2B15 and UGT2B17 variants and PC risk. These associations with PC risk in men with high Gleason sum, more frequently found in African American men, support the relevance of genetic differences in the androgen metabolism pathway, which could explain, in part, the high incidence of PC among African American men. Larger studies are required.

Simplified Predictive Instrument to Rule Out Acute Coronary Syndromes in a High-Risk Population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diagnostic protocols based on cardiac markers to identify low-risk chest pain patients suitable for early release from the emergency department can be applied to patients older than 65 years or with traditional cardiac risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single-center retrospective study of 231 consecutive patients with high-risk factor burden in which a first cardiac troponin (cTn) level was measured in the emergency department and a second cTn sample was drawn 4 to 14 hours later, we compared the performance of a modified 2-Hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients with Chest Pain Using Contemporary Troponins as the Only Biomarker (ADAPT) rule to a new risk classification scheme that identifies patients as low risk if they have no known coronary artery disease, a nonischemic electrocardiogram, and 2 cTn levels below the assay's limit of detection. Demographic and outcome data were abstracted through chart review. The median age of our population was 64 years, and 75% had Thrombosis In Myocardial Infarction risk score ≥2. Using our risk classification rule, 53 (23%) patients were low risk with a negative predictive value for 30-day cardiac events of 98%. Applying a modified ADAPT rule to our cohort, 18 (8%) patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 100%. In a sensitivity analysis, the negative predictive value of our risk algorithm did not change when we relied only on undetectable baseline cTn and eliminated the second cTn assessment. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed in prospective studies, this less-restrictive risk classification strategy could be used to safely identify chest pain patients with more traditional cardiac risk factors for early emergency department release.